You are cordially invited to the SCL online seminar of the Center for the Study of Complex Systems, which will be held on Thursday, 24 March 2022 at 14:00 on Zoom. The talk entitled

Universal patterns of multiscale stochastic processes in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

will be given by Dr. Marija Mitrović Dankulov (Scientific Computing Laboratory, Center for the Study of Complex Systems, Institute of Physics Belgrade). Abstract of the talk:

SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has influenced every aspect of our lives in the previous two years. The course of an epidemic in one country depends on many factors, including different epidemic measures. The epidemic measures taken varied from country to country and during the epidemic. Apart from the measures themselves, the evolution of the epidemic depends significantly on different underlying stochastic processes. Understanding the global nature of these processes and how they, combined with different measures, influence the course of epidemics is crucial for predicting its evolution. In this talk, we will present the analysis [1] of the world data of SARS-CoV-2 infection events for two distinct periods during the epidemic: the first eight months of the outbreak phase and the first eight months of the immunization phase. Using methods from time series analysis and complex network theory, we will analyze the global features of mentioned stochastic processes. Our results reveal the robust communities of different countries and regions clustered according to similar shapes of infection fluctuations - the content of communities differs for two different phases of the epidemic. Further, examination of the communities reveals the appearance of large clusters that span different geographic locations, suggesting that regional similarities are not the only driver of the evolution of the epidemic. Detailed time series analysis reveals cyclic trends and that persistent fluctuations around the local trend occur in intervals smaller than 14 days. Our results provide the basis for further research into the interplay between biological and social factors that are the primary cause of epidemic infection cycles.

[1] M. Mitrović Dankulov, B. Tadić, R. Melnik, medRxiv:2021.12.20.21268095 (2021).

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